Start with the flattering number, because everyone else does. Take a two-bedroom flat in central
Bournemouth. Our estimator publishes an indicative market model, not measured data and not a forecast: a
£142 base rate for a two-bed and a 1.10 central multiplier, so about £156 a night. Distributed across every
major channel and actively priced, the model assumes 0.68 occupancy: roughly 248 nights, about £38,800 of
gross booking revenue. Listed on one channel at a price you set in March and never touch, it drops to 0.47,
or about 172 nights and £26,800. Same flat, same street.
Now put a buy-to-let beside it. What that flat achieves on an AST locally is
{{TODO: confirm with FSM}} a month. Get a lettings valuation; do not lift a number off a website.
Multiply by twelve and you have the honest comparison. In a visitor market the short-let gross is normally
larger, often by a distance.
Then it narrows. Occupancy is never 100%: 0.68 still leaves about 117 empty nights. August pays for
February, so a plan built on twelve equal months breaks in the first quarter. And a tenant pays the
electricity bill. A guest does not. The £12,000 between those two occupancy assumptions, though, is not
luck. It is distribution and
pricing: the most fixable line in the model.